IntroductionIran has stated that the Strait of Hormuz is not completely closed, but shipping is now under its control. For the international logistics market, this does not mean the risk has been eliminated, but rather that the risk has entered a new phase of instability.
Event Overview
According to CGTN, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps stated that the Strait of Hormuz is currently "not closed, but under Iranian control." This means that the strait is not completely closed to navigation, but there is still considerable uncertainty regarding passage conditions, permitted passage targets, and subsequent policies.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy and shipping routes. When a situation arises where the passage is "passable but unstable," the market often does not see it as the end of the negative news. Instead, it continues to factor the risk into freight rates, insurance, and space arrangements.
Impact Analysis
- The strait is not completely closed, which helps to avoid the most extreme supply chain disruptions.
- However, the phrase "under control" implies that there is still considerable room for further policy changes, and the market is unlikely to return to normal expectations.
- Shipping companies, insurance institutions, and freight forwarders will continue to maintain a high-risk pricing logic.
CZL Recommendation
- Shipping prices in the Middle East will continue to fluctuate due to risk; premature price corrections are not advisable.
- For time-sensitive goods, confirm with the customer in advance whether they accept port changes, detours, or increased surcharges.
- Continue to monitor subsequent statements from Iran, the United States, and regional allies to avoid misjudging the market based on the assumption that "the risk has been eliminated."
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