If Chubb's willingness to provide risky support indicates that the market is trying to find a way to recover, then another Reuters report puts the reality more bluntly: the Strait of Hormuz is still far from "returning to normal".
what happened
Reuters reported on March 20, citing ship tracking data, that no crude oil tankers had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, two Indian-flagged LPG carriers, the Pine Gas and Jag Vasant, were anchored in the Gulf waters, preparing to attempt passage.
The report also mentioned that since Iran threatened to attack ships attempting to leave the Gulf, a large number of vessels have anchored in the area. The Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 201 TP3T of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments; a prolonged disruption would have far-reaching consequences, extending far beyond the Middle East.
What does this news story illustrate?
The most crucial point about this news is not that "two ships are preparing for sea trials," but that "no crude oil tankers have passed through in the past 24 hours."
This illustrates three things:
- The core energy supply chain remains nearly at a standstill.
- Even if individual countries manage to secure safe passage, these are isolated cases and do not represent an overall recovery.
- The pressures from shipping, insurance, fuel, and surcharges have not yet been relieved.
In other words, what Gulf shipping is seeing now is "exploratory action," not "recovery traffic."
Impact on cargo owners
As long as passage through the Hormuz has not truly resumed, the market will continue to experience several chain reactions:
- Shipping schedules and transshipment arrangements are easier to adjust repeatedly.
- War risk insurance and emergency surcharges are difficult to reduce.
- Energy prices are under pressure, and shipping and air freight costs are likely to continue to fluctuate.
- Making time-bound commitments regarding the Middle East will be more difficult.
This kind of impact may not be reflected in all route prices on the same day, but it will gradually spread to bookings, fuel, surcharges and customer expectations.
What suggestions does CZL have?
For clients currently engaged in business related to the Middle East, the Gulf, and the Red Sea, we recommend continuing to operate according to the risk profile:
- The validity period of quotes should be shortened as much as possible to avoid quotes that expire tomorrow.
- Explain the time fluctuations to the client in advance and do not promise according to the usual shipping schedule.
- For goods with high value and strict time requirements, prepare alternative routes in advance.
- For shipments to the Middle East, it is best to include surcharges, changes in insurance, and delay risks in the communication records.
If you want to continue tracking these kinds of changes, you can also refer to our previously compiled risk articles:Escalating attacks on the Strait of Hormuz raise maritime risks.When dealing with changes in fees, you can also refer to... Additional Fee Page and Fuel surcharge page.
in conclusion
The current situation at Hormuz should not be interpreted as a recovery simply because some ships are "preparing to attempt" a test. What we should really be monitoring is continuous passage data, not reports of single test voyages.
For those working in foreign trade and logistics, the most important thing during this period is to control expectations and not mistake a market that has not yet recovered for one that has already recovered.