On April 1, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said that Middle East oil price volatility would continue to worsen in April, and the European economy would begin to be affected. The question now is no longer "whether tensions will increase again," but whether jet fuel and diesel shortages will continue.
He mentioned that since the conflict began, more than 12 million barrels of oil have disappeared from the market. The losses in April could be twice that of March. Jet kerosene and diesel will first become scarce in Asia, and then spread to Europe in April or May.
What did this update say?
| Key Points | content |
|---|---|
| Supply Disturbances | Middle East oil price volatility continued to rise in April, with continued restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz further tightening supply. |
| Scope of influence | Jet kerosene and diesel will be in short supply first, and Europe will feel the pressure in April or May. |
| Market judgment | The IEA says April losses could be twice that of March, impacting both inflation and growth. |
This isn't a freight rate announcement, but the signal is clear: fuel-related costs will continue to rise.
What impact will this have on logistics?
Air freight will be the first to be affected. With jet fuel in short supply, it will be difficult to lower fuel surcharges, especially on European routes.
Land transportation won't be easy either. If diesel fuel remains tight, truck costs will rise, eventually impacting the quoted prices.
While shipping costs may not seem to be reflected as quickly as they appear, the costs of fuel and alternative routes will be driven up. For Middle Eastern routes that already involve detours, costs will be even more difficult to stabilize.
What do you think of CZL?
This message isn't a "uniform price increase today," but it illustrates one thing: the pressure on fuel costs in April is unlikely to ease.
If you're currently looking at air freight, truck delivery to Europe, or routes to the Middle East, it's best to break down the following aspects in the quote:
- Has the base shipping cost changed?
- Will the fuel surcharge be raised again?
- Is the destination still within a remote, detour, or temporary transit area?
Practical advice for clients
If you need to ship now, you can first check these three entry points:
If you need to check whether the destination is remote before shipping, you can also check that while you're at it. Remote Query.
Source
- Reuters: IEA warns Middle East oil disruptions set to hit Europe in April
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/middle-east-oil-supply-disruptions-rise-april-hit-europe-iea-chief-says-2026-04-01/