On April 20, Reuters reported that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was once again nearing a standstill. Once this bottleneck tightens, the timeliness, availability, and costs of related Middle Eastern routes will all increase simultaneously.
What happened this time (key information)
- In the past 12 hours, there were only 3 transits (1 outbound and 2 inbound), significantly lower than the usual daily transit level of about 130 vessels.
- The situation escalated over the weekend: Iran fired "warning shots" at transit vessels, and the US seized an Iranian cargo ship.
- CMA CGM of France confirmed that one of its container ships was hit by "warning shots," but the crew is safe.
- War risk rates have rebounded from approximately 2% to approximately 3% (based on vessel value), with insurance and chartering costs rising in tandem.
- International oil prices rebounded, with Brent and WTI rising significantly on the day, but cost pressures on fuels remain.
Direct impact on the shipping end
1) Shipping prices to the Middle East will continue to rise.
In the short term, airlines, insurance companies, and ship owners will all re-incorporate risk premiums into their quotes. Even if you are traveling on a route that does not directly pass through the Hormuz, regional coordination may still affect cabin availability and transshipment costs.
2) Increased timeliness fluctuations and a higher probability of port relocation/detours.
If the cycle of "temporary opening and then tightening" continues, the stability of shipping schedules will decrease significantly, and delays, reassignments, and rerouting may occur after booking.
3) The rebound in oil prices will be reflected in subsequent surcharges.
With oil prices and risk factors combined, shipping fuel surcharges are likely to face upward pressure in the near future, and the validity period of quotations may be shortened.
Advice for foreign trade clients (can be implemented directly)
- Quotation plus validity periodFor the Middle East route, it is recommended to shorten the validity period of the quote to avoid "yesterday's quote being lower than today's quote".
- Contract with contingency clausesEstablish a pre-agreed mechanism for adjusting war risk/emergency surcharges to avoid future disputes.
- Lock in insurance and cargo space for high-value cargo first.Don't just focus on freight rates; first look at feasibility.
- Prepare alternative solutionsPrepare two contingency plans in advance: a direct flight plan and a detour/transfer plan.
source
- Reuters original article:Hormuz shipping again near standstill after shots and seizure
- Related background (extended from the same round of events):Trump, Iran cite progress in talks, uncertainty hangs over Strait
We will continue to monitor the pace of traffic recovery, changes in insurance rates, and updates to the booking policies of major shipping companies.