Following the agreement reached between the US and Iran, the first ships have passed through the Strait of Hormuz. But don't be too optimistic—currently only about 15 ships are passing through per day, compared to over 130 before the war. Traffic volume has only recovered to 61 to 71 TP3 tons compared to the same period last year.
Approximately 500 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf. The market expects large-scale departures to begin only after the formal signing of the agreement on Friday. Even so, clearing the existing backlog will take about 30 days, and the shipping network will need more than eight weeks to return to normal operation.
Shipping safety assessments remain at the "serious" level, and major shipping companies have not relaxed restrictions on Persian Gulf routes. Maersk has just announced a new emergency freight surcharge of US$1,800 for 20-foot containers and US$3,000 for 40-foot containers. Other shipping companies are also adjusting freight rates and route arrangements.
Iran has also taken action. According to a previous Reuters report, Iran may charge ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a fee after the 60-day ceasefire ends, though the specific amount and method are still unclear. If this fee is implemented, transportation costs on the Persian Gulf route will rise another notch.
Expecting freight rates to fall in the short term is unrealistic. Sellers shipping to the Middle East need to anticipate capacity shortages for at least eight weeks and lock in space and freight rates in advance. CZL can help you find the latest freight and surcharge information:
- Shipping cost inquiry: https://exp.czl.net/fee
- Surcharge inquiry: https://exp.czl.net/surcharges