On June 27, the Strait of Hormuz was hit by three impacts within 72 hours.
First, the military conflict escalated. Iran attacked the Singapore-flagged cargo ship Ever Lovely, and the US military subsequently launched two rounds of airstrikes against Iranian targets. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has suspended the evacuation of hundreds of ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. Traffic in the strait had just recovered to its highest level since the start of the conflict, and this round of fighting directly interrupted the recovery process.
Secondly, there's the signal regarding tolls. On the same day, Oman told European officials that the pre-war normalcy of passage through the straits was irreversible, and that vessels transiting the straits might have to pay fees in the future. Iran insists on joint management of strait traffic with Oman, and although US Secretary of State Rubio stated that Iran had promised not to charge tolls, the actual course of events remains unclear.
Third, the scope of the conflict has expanded. Iran launched a drone attack on Bahrain, and more ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, leading to additional delays and security upgrades at ports around the Persian Gulf.
Actual impact on logistics
- Freight rates under pressureCross-strait risk premiums and marine insurance premiums are expected to rise further, making it difficult for freight rates on Middle East-related routes to decline in the short term.
- Additional fee riskThe Emergency Freight Surcharge and Emergency Risk Surcharge previously added by various shipping companies are likely to remain unchanged or even increase.
- toll costsIf the toll mechanism is implemented, the operating costs of oil tankers and cargo ships transiting the Persian Gulf will experience a structural increase, with impacts not limited to Middle East routes.
- TimelinessPort delays around the Persian Gulf are worsening, requiring cargo transiting through the Middle East to allow more time.
Sellers using the Middle East route are advised to closely monitor developments and confirm route arrangements and surcharges with freight forwarders in advance.
source:NYT ｜ The Guardian ｜ Insurance Journal ｜ Washington Post