Sellers shipping to Europe will be seeing two opposing news items lately: spot air freight rates from mainland China to Europe have fallen by 291 TP3T in six weeks, from $5.43/kg to $3.86/kg; at the same time, DHL is expanding its hubs and launching new cargo routes in China. It seems like shipping to Europe is about to become cheaper.
If we calculate based on a single shipment, the landed cost for small parcels with low average order value is actually higher. The small savings in shipping costs cannot offset the tariffs imposed by the EU starting July 1st.
How much have freight rates fallen?
Weekly data from WorldACD, from week 25 (late June) to week 31 (July 27 to August 2):
| route | Week 25 | Week 31 | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainland China → Europe | $5.43/kg | $3.86/kg | -29% |
| Hong Kong → Europe | $5.80/kg | $4.96/kg | -15% |
In week 31, chargeable weight for flights from mainland China to Europe decreased by 51 TP3T compared to the previous week, while Hong Kong saw a decrease of 31 TP3T, marking the sixth consecutive week of decline. For the entire month of July, volume from Hong Kong to Europe fell by 241 TP3T year-on-year, while volume from mainland China decreased by 61 TP3T.
The price drop is not due to increased shipping capacity, but rather a shortage of goods. New EU regulations have raised customs clearance costs for low-value small packages, making the strategy of relying on high volume and low profit margins unsustainable. Shippers are holding back their orders and waiting to see what happens.
How are fees collected under the new EU regulations effective July 1st?
From July 1, 2026, the EU will eliminate the tariff exemption for imported goods valued below €150. B2C direct mail parcels valued below €150 will now be subject to a fixed tariff of €3 per tariff subcategory, with goods under different HS codes within the same parcel being taxed separately.
For example, a package under €150 containing one women's silk shirt and two men's wool shirts. The silk shirt and wool shirts are under different tax categories, so they are counted as two separate items and taxed at €6; the two wool shirts belong to the same category and are not taxed twice.
This is a transitional arrangement, running from July 1, 2026 to July 1, 2028. After the transition period, the fixed €3 tariff will be abolished, and replaced by a five-tiered tariff system: 0%, 5%, 8%, 12%, and 17%. The European Commission is also pushing for a unified European low-value goods handling fee, which is currently still a proposal and has not been finalized. Do not calculate costs based on the already implemented standards.
We wrote an article about the earlier policy details:The EU will remove tax exemptions for items under €150 on July 1st, and a €3 tariff will be added to each cross-border e-commerce parcel..
Did the shipment actually save money or cost more?
Let's roughly calculate using a small clothing bag weighing 0.5 kg:
Air freight spot prices have dropped from $5.43 to $3.86 per kilogram, saving approximately $0.79 (about €0.70) for 0.5 kilograms. Under the new regulations, this shipment will incur at least €3 more in customs duties. The net increase is approximately €2.30. If the package contains goods under two different tariff categories, the customs duty increases to €6, resulting in a net increase of approximately €5.30.
For items priced between 10 and 20 euros, this amount is significant proportionally. Links that previously relied on low prices to boost sales volume now need to have their gross profit margins reassessed.
Don't use the spot price of air freight as your courier quote.
WorldACD quotes spot rates for air freight space, reflecting the costs incurred by freight forwarders in securing bookings. International express companies like DHL, FedEx, and UPS use their own networks for pricing, which is not synchronized with the spot market.
Be especially careful with fuel surcharges. These companies set their rates separately based on the originating market, using different fuel indices, and their rates often show conflicting directions. A decrease in the US rate doesn't necessarily mean a decrease in the Chinese export rate; we saw a situation in August this year where US routes saw a decrease while Chinese exports saw an increase. The actual rates for Chinese exports are shown on this page:Fuel surcharge inquiryTo find out how much your ticket is worth now, just check. Freight Inquiry.
On the other hand: shipping capacity is increasing towards China.
Demand is declining, while transportation capacity is increasing.
DHL Express expanded and put into operation its super port at Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport on July 28. The operating area has been expanded to 22,000 square meters (2.6 times the original size), and the daily cargo handling capacity is about 900 tons, which is about three times that of the original hub. The project started in 2022 and took four years to complete, with a total investment of over 1.2 billion yuan. It is DHL Express's largest single investment project in mainland China, equipped with high-speed sorting lines, intelligent automated warehouses, robotic arms, and AGVs (Automated Guided Vehicles).
On August 11, DHL launched another daily Boeing 767 freighter service, flying from Shanghai to Bangkok, Bahrain, Brussels, and back to Shanghai. The 767 has a maximum payload of 50 tons. Bangkok is responsible for consolidating cargo from Southeast Asia, while Bahrain and Brussels are both DHL's own hubs. This route combines cargo from China and Southeast Asia before shipping it to the Middle East and Europe.
For sellers in South and East China who export via DHL, the significance of these two things will only become apparent during the peak season: sorting capacity and trunk line space are more ample than last year, reducing the likelihood of delivery times being disrupted during Q4's warehouse congestion. DHL has made no price commitments, nor has it stated that it will adjust prices accordingly.
Now, what operational changes are needed for shipping to Europe?
Try to combine goods under the same tariff category into one shipment. The €3 tariff is calculated based on the tariff subcategory, not per item. If one package contains 5 identical T-shirts, the tariff is still €3; if you split it into 5 packages, the tariff will be €15. The practice of splitting shipments to reduce the weight of a single shipment must now be reversed.
The product name and HS code must be accurate. Customs will carefully review how many tariff lines you declare, as fees are calculated according to tariff headings. Vague descriptions like "clothing" or "samples" can lead to delays, requiring additional documentation, or even being reclassified for formal customs declaration, resulting in tariffs, VAT, and clearance fees several times the shipping cost. The correct format is product name plus material and intended use, such as "65% cotton + 35% polyester fiber adult casual T-shirt".
Include customs duties in the quote before sending it to the customer. Someone ultimately has to pay these 3 euros: for self-tax shipping, the recipient pays; for tax-inclusive shipping, they are already included in the quote. Confirm with the recipient who will bear this cost before shipping; don't wait until the invoice is returned to the sender after delivery.
Many addresses in Europe are located in remote areas, and remote area fees are added to the fuel surcharge. (Address search link) Remote address searchOther fees will be charged separately. Additional Fee Inquiry.
Information source
- Air Cargo Tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe Fall for Sixth Week (WorldACD data)
- European air cargo demand continues to fall following EU's stricter import rules (Air Cargo News, 2026-08-10)
- Focus on the Greater Bay Area | DHL Express Launches Operations at Shenzhen Super Port (Xinhua News Agency, 2026-07-28)
- DHL Express expands capacity for Chinese exporters (CEP Research, 2026-08-11)
- DHL adds Shanghai-Bangkok freighter link (STAT Times, 2026-08-11)
Send us your cargo information and we'll calculate the cost for you. We'll help you decide on the shipping plan to Europe, whether to use self-tax or tax-inclusive shipping, and which route is currently the most cost-effective.