Last week, international freight forwarding giant CH Robinson issued a warning to its clients: In the second half of September, space on some air freight routes departing from Asia will become tight, with flights departing from China being the most affected. The trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe routes, the two main routes, will be the first to be impacted.
This isn't alarmist; several factors have converged. The end-of-quarter shipping rush typically brings a surge in arrivals, and technology goods have been scrambling for belly cargo space and freighter capacity lately. Add to this the Mid-Autumn Festival at the end of the month and the National Day holiday from October 1st to 7th, and many factories and shippers want to ship their goods before the holidays to avoid a week of warehouse backlog. The situation in the Middle East continues to impact airspace and flight schedules, with aircraft detours and flight adjustments further straining already limited capacity.
CH Robinson's original words were that booking pressure would begin to become apparent in mid-September and would intensify further before the holidays.
Who is most affected, and who is okay?
CH Robinson stated it very clearly:Flights departing from China are the most affected by this wave of tensions.Whether places like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand will follow suit depends on how airlines adjust cargo flight schedules and cargo space allocations. The situations may vary and require individual monitoring.
One point needs clarification: this tightening of cargo space does not indicate a general increase in overall freight demand. Aside from AI infrastructure-related goods, the market has not experienced a widespread surge. Therefore, the first to feel the pressure will be general cargo, not an immediate across-the-board increase in freight rates.Fewer flights, fewer direct flight options, slower transit timesThe fare increase will most likely start with popular flights and peak travel times, rather than all flights increasing at the same time.
What does this mean for sellers shipping from China?
If your goods need to be shipped between mid-September and National Day, don't wait until a week before the holiday to look for shipping channels. By then, good flights will be fully booked. Booking in advance is the most practical solution. If you have urgent shipments, try to use earlier batches to allow for some buffer time for customs clearance and transshipment. If freight forwarder quotes increase significantly during this period, it's likely a sign of tighter flight resources, not necessarily arbitrary price increases by shipping channels.
You can check shipping costs directly on [website/platform name]. CZL shipping cost inquiry Compare prices and delivery times across different channels to plan your shipment schedule in advance. If the goods have issues such as remote addresses or additional fees, you can also use [other methods] in advance. Remote address search and Additional Fee Inquiry Make sure you understand the details to avoid discovering extra charges only when the holiday is approaching.
Information source:CH Robinson warns of Asia cargo capacity shortages, Air Cargo News, 2026-09-08
